Thursday, December 22, 2011

Near-Term Mortgage Rates Hover at Ceiling of Resistance

In this chart, the black-dotted line is serving as a tough ceiling of resistance. Outside of the short-term breakout back in the Fall - prices have not been able to get above this ceiling, meaning that in the near-term pricing is about as good as it can get. However - as technical analysis tells us, if prices break above this ceiling, that tough resistance would now become a floor of support. So instead of the horizontal line being about as good as prices can get, it could represent about as bad as prices could get. What event could make that happen? Escalating Eurodrama or another round of Fed MBS buying...QE3.

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